By Jimmy Robertson
BLACKSBURG – After a weekend off, the Virginia Tech football team returns to action Saturday in what will be its final nonconference game of the season.
The Hokies, sitting at 5-2 heading into the stretch run of the fall, square off against No. 16 Notre Dame in South Bend, Indiana. The Irish fell to 5-2 on the season after losing at Michigan last Saturday. Their only other loss came at Georgia on Sept. 21.
Notre Dame is 4-0 at home this season and in the midst of a 15-game home winning streak dating back to 2017. Three of those wins this season have come by at least two touchdowns, and in each of those three victories, the Irish, behind quarterback Ian Book, amassed more than 475 yards of offense.
"I really felt like, last year – I believe it was last year at some point, but I may be wrong – some point early in the year they made the move to go fully with him as their quarterback, and it really changed them offensively," Tech head coach Justin Fuente said. "It really hasn't stopped since they made that move.
"He's a guy that can throw the ball, but is athletic – gets out of trouble, makes plays with his feet, keeps his eyes downfield, and can really hurt you on the move. I think he's been a really efficient, good player for them and maybe one of the reasons over the last year and a half they've made pretty big strides on that side of the ball."
2019 VIRGINIA TECH FOOTBALL TICKETS
(The Virginia Tech Athletics Department has individual football game tickets on sale. Fans interested in purchasing a ticket to any of the Hokies' final two home games may do so by clicking here.)
But the Hokies have won three straight games themselves and scored at least 34 points in all three. They have scored at least 28 points in their two road games this fall (1-1).
So what gives Saturday? Well, here are some things to watch:
Stopping the run – Bud Foster hinted at this at a news conference earlier this week, and the statistics reinforce his view. Notre Dame averages 169 yards rushing per game, so while many think of the Irish as a passing team and head coach Brian Kelly certainly has the reputation of being a passing-oriented coach, Notre Dame actually makes its living on the ground.
For sure, the Hokies need to contain Notre Dame's ground game, and if they do, they stand a great chance of winning. In Notre Dame's two losses this season, the Irish rushed for 46 and 47 yards against Georgia and Michigan, respectively. They averaged less than 3.3 yards per carry against the Bulldogs and only 1.5 yards per carry in a downpour against the Wolverines. In contrast, Notre Dame has rushed for 157 yards or more in all of its wins.
Tech nearly always wins when it holds opponents to less than 150 yards rushing. To revisit a statistic that has been in this space before, the Hokies are 20-3 under Justin Fuente when allowing less than 150 yards rushing, and if they do so Saturday afternoon, they probably pull off the upset.
Running the ball – After scuffling around in its first two games, Tech has run the ball much better of late, amassing 153 yards on the ground against Miami, 224 against Rhode Island and a season-best 254 against North Carolina. Those three games happen to coincide with Hendon Hooker's insertion as the starting quarterback, which has given the Hokies an additional threat in the running game.
Fuente and offensive coordinator Brad Cornelsen have committed to running the ball. Tech has run the ball more than it has thrown it in every game except the season-opening loss to Boston College, and the Hokies have run the ball at least 39 times in five consecutive games – a streak that includes a season-high 60-carry performance against the Tar Heels.
On the flip side, Notre Dame has been susceptible to the run. The Irish have allowed at least 152 yards rushing in five of seven games, including a whopping 303 in their loss to Michigan last Saturday. Even teams not noted for running the ball – Louisville (249), New Mexico (212) and USC (189) – piled up big numbers on the ground.
Again, in revisiting another stat, running the ball usually equates to victories for the Hokies, who own a 24-6 record when rushing for 150 yards under Fuente. That number for both teams – 150 yards rushing – probably determines the outcome of Saturday's game.
Tech's defense – The Hokies have struggled somewhat on defense this season, allowing at least 30 points in four of seven games. In fact, Tech has allowed at least 30 points in three of the past four games, though it won two of those three matchups.
But Tech's defense may be getting ready to turn the corner primarily because several key contributors appear ready to return from injuries and/or are nearly at full health. Foster expects to get defensive tackle DaShawn Crawford back after he missed two games with an injury, and he expects cornerback Caleb Farley to be good to go after missing the second half and six overtimes of the UNC game with an injury. Plus, defensive end TyJuan Garbutt, who returned for the Rhode Island game, appears to be at full strength now.
Do fans realize that Tech's projected starting defensive line entering the season – Garbutt, Crawford, Jarrod Hewitt and Emmanuel Belmar – has started together just twice this season?
In addition, defensive tackle Jaden Cunningham made his season debut against the Tar Heels, and defensive end Zion Debose – out all season so far – dressed for the UNC game.
Tech's staff liked this defensive front coming into the season. The coaches finally may get to see all their key cogs healthy, as Tech enters this five-game stretch run, starting with Saturday's game against the Irish.
Tech red-zone defense vs. Irish red-zone offense – The Irish have been sensational this season when reaching the red zone, scoring on all 24 trips – an astounding number. Even more impressive, 21 of those 24 visits to the red zone ended with touchdowns (11 rushing and 10 passing). No other FBS team in the country is perfect in the red zone.
The Hokies' defense, though, has been fairly salty when opponents reach the red zone. Tech ranks tied for 23rd nationally and fourth in the ACC in red zone defense, having allowed opponents to score on 22 of 29 trips.
So something may give Saturday. If Tech can simply force field goals when/if Notre Dame reaches the red zone, then it greatly increases its chances of a victory.
In closing: The Tech-Notre Dame game is slated to kick off at 2:30 p.m. and can be seen on NBC.