By Jimmy Robertson
WASHINGTON, D.C. – A long, rollercoaster of a season comes to an end for the Virginia Tech football program Monday afternoon when the Hokies take to the field at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium for the Military Bowl and their matchup against Cincinnati.
Tech enters the game with a 6-6 record, but winners of their final two games to become bowl eligible. Cincinnati, which is receiving votes in The Associated Press poll, enters with a 10-2 mark, with their only losses coming in overtime to Temple and to No. 7 and unbeaten UCF.
This may be the Hokies' biggest test since losing to Notre Dame in early October. The Bearcats have won seven of their 10 games by at least a touchdown and have done so with a freshman quarterback at the helm.
"There's a reason they've won 10 ballgames," Tech head coach Justin Fuente said. "They're extremely well-coached. They've got a very efficient rushing attack and they have big playmakers on the outside. Their quarterback seems to keep making plays. They won 10 games and the two games they lost were to very accomplished teams. You look at the defensive side of the ball and a lot of pressure, man coverage, with a little bit of zone mixed in there … it'll be a tremendous challenge."
Did Tech turn a corner after rallying to beat Virginia on Nov. 23, snapping a four-game losing streak? The team appeared to gain confidence from that win, as it cruised past Marshall in the season-finale to become bowl eligible for the 26th consecutive season.
They've extended two streaks in the past two games – beating the Cavaliers for the 15th straight time and the bowl streak. Now, all that is left: extending the streak of winning seasons to 26 consecutive.
Doing so won't be easy, and with that said, here are some things to watch:
Tech's rush defense – Cincinnati resembles many Big Ten teams, which comes as no surprise considering head coach Luke Fickell's experience from his days as an assistant at Ohio State. The Bearcats like to run the ball behind tailback Michael Warren, who has rushed for more than 1,100 yards and 17 touchdowns this season.
Cincinnati ranks No. 16 nationally in rushing offense at 238.1 yards per game, so if the Hokies want to win, they simply need to be able to contain the Bearcats' rushing attack. The task won't be easy, though. Cincinnati really commits to running the football, having run the ball at least 40 times in nine games this season and more than 50 times on six occasions.
In fact, the Bearcats haven't rushed the ball fewer than 34 carries in any game this season. They've rushed for at least 150 yards in every game with the exception of one – a 125-yard performance against SMU in which they struggled to a 26-20 overtime win.
The Hokies allow more than 200 yards rushing per game, but they have played better in their three games since allowing Pittsburgh to rush for nearly 500 yards in a mid-November loss. They held two of those three opponents to less than 170, and hopefully, that trend continues Monday afternoon.
The turnover game – There is a definite trend in the games in which Cincinnati hasn't played well this season. Simply put, the Bearcats have turned the ball over in those contests.
In its losses to Temple and UCF, Cincinnati turned the ball over three times. In the Bearcats' overtime win over SMU, they turned it over three times.
Cincinnati ranked No. 66 nationally in turnovers lost. Virginia Tech, however, hasn't been great at forcing turnovers, with just 12 fumble recoveries and six interceptions on the season.
That said, the Hokies recovered three fumbles in their win over Virginia and forced two turnovers in the victory over Marshall. Forcing two or three (or more) against Cincinnati would certainly enhance the Hokies' chances.
Ridder's comfort level – Desmond Ridder's numbers as Cincinnati's quarterback are very good – 2,359 yards passing, with 19 touchdowns and just five interceptions. The redshirt freshman took over for Hayden Moore in the Bearcats' season opener against UCLA and never looked back.
But he is a redshirt freshman. Can Tech defensive coordinator Bud Foster cook up some unique looks to give Ridder some troubles? Typically, freshmen struggle against Foster's defenses.
The Bearcats rely on stingy defense and their ground attack. They have run the ball 222 times more than they have thrown it, which takes the pressure off of Ridder. Hopefully, the Hokies put him in some pressure situations and take advantage of any mistakes.
Willis' day – In the games in which Cincinnati struggled, it gave up some yardage in the passing game. Temple threw for 237 yards and three touchdowns in its win over the Bearcats, while UCF threw for 268 yards and three scores in its win over Cincinnati. SMU threw for 328 and two scores, though the Bearcats won.
That means there could be an opportunity for a nice game from Tech quarterback Ryan Willis. The redshirt junior enters the game with nearly 2,500 yards and 22 touchdowns, with eight interceptions, and has played very well for the Hokies since taking over for the injured Josh Jackson.
Willis threw a career-high four touchdown passes against Marshall and has thrown for at least two scores in seven of his nine starts. Can he make it eight of 10? If so, he probably would be putting the Hokies in great position to win.
Special teams – The Hokies haven't played up to Fuente's expectations on special teams in part because of the youth on the roster, and indicative of good teams, the Bearcats play well on these units – they haven't allowed a kick or punt return for a score this season and have blocked two kicks.
But the Hokies would help themselves immensely by making a big play on special teams against Cincinnati, and they got better in this area as the season went along. Brian Johnson has made four straight field goals, and Jordan Stout has registered 60 touchbacks on 67 kickoffs. Tech blocked punts against Florida State and Virginia and returned both for touchdowns. So there have been positives.
The Hokies have scored six touchdowns on special teams in Fuente's three seasons. A seventh could very well be the difference in a Military Bowl matchup with the Bearcats.
As stated earlier, Tech has continued all its streaks so far despite all the adversity faced this season. A pro-Tech crowd should be at full throat when the game kicks at noon (on ESPN). For sure, the stakes for this program – a 26th straight winning season – are certainly high.